Bitcoin bear market over, metric hints as BTC exchange balances hit 4-year low


Bitcoin (BTC) may already be beginning its new macro uptrend if historical “hodl” habits repeat.

That was the conclusion from research into the latest data covering the amount of the BTC supply dormant for one year or more as of July 2022.

Hodled BTC hints that the bear market is over

According to independent analyst Miles Johal, who uploaded the findings to social media on July 29, a “rounded top” formation in “hodled” BTC is in the process of completing.

Once it does, price should react — just like on multiple occasions before.

The clue lies in Bitcoin’s HODL Waves metric, which breaks down the supply according to when each bitcoin last moved. One year ago or more — the one-year HODL Wave — currently reflects the majority of the supply.

Johal’s accompanying chart shows that the greater the proportion of the overall supply stationary for at least a year, the closer BTC/USD is to a macro bottom.

More importantly, however, a slowing of the one-year HODL Wave — indicating accumulation is calming down — followed by the start of a reversal has always come at the start of a new long-term BTC price uptrend.

This “rounded top” chart phenomenon is thus being keenly eyed as a potential source of hope with Bitcoin already making up lost ground.

In comments, Johal argued that few had been paying attention to HODL Waves.

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Bitcoin 1-year+ HODL Wave annotated chart. Source: Miles Johal/ Twitter

Exchange balances lowest since 2018

Separate data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode meanwhile highlighted the ongoing trend of bitcoins leaving exchanges.

Related: Bitcoin bull run ‘getting interesting’ as BTC price hits 6-week high

BTC in exchange wallets now accounts for just 12.6% of the overall supply, down 4.6% of the overall supply since the March 2020 crash, staff noted.

In BTC terms, the figure is 2.4 million BTC now compared to 3.15 million BTC in March 2020. The number is the lowest since July 2018.

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BTC balance on exchanges chart. Source: Glassnode

Earlier this month, Cointelegraph reported on the accelerating trend of removing coins from exchanges.

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