Ethereum hits 3-week high vs. Bitcoin amid Fed-led market rout

Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) tumbled to its worst levels in almost two months against the U.S. dollar on May 6 as the rout in financial markets rippled across the cryptocurrency sector. Nonetheless, ETH did fare better than Bitcoin (BTC) with the ETH/BTC pair hitting a three-week high.

8b7a2733 259b 4786 8e52 cc977f95af41
ETH/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView

The Merge impact

Many analysts credited Ethereum’s merge to proof-of-stake from proof-of-work as one of the key reasons behind the capital rotation from Ether to Bitcoin markets, including Toast.ETH, a pseudonymous analyst who underscored Ether’s ongoing supply reduction as another reason why ETH may be currently outperforming BTC.

Interestingly, Ethereum has grown by nearly 250% against Bitcoin since the beginning of its migration to proof-of-stake in December 2020. 

a930d9d9 aeec 4fdc 9229 e1afb186eef0
ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

Eliezer Ndinga, a research lead at 21 Shares, a Zug-based crypto ETP provider, pointed out that “liquid staking” could also be playing a big role in reducing sell-side pressure.

ETH/BTC upside prospects

Technicals indicate ETH/BTC could grow further in May but risks a broader correction overall as it trends inside a rising wedge pattern.

The pair has bounced after testing the wedge’s lower trendline as support on April 30, and is now heading towards the upper trendline (around 0.078) as its interim upside target.

Related: Bitcoin’s rocky road to becoming a risk-off asset: Analysts investigate

But since rising wedges are typically bearish reversal patterns, ETH/BTC’s likelihood of breaking lower remains higher in the long term.

43a4d007 67a8 4303 bdc2 2055780fb23f
ETH/BTC daily price chart featuring ‘rising wedge’ setup. Source: TradingView

As a rule of technical analysis, rising wedge breakdowns end up with the price crashing to a level at a length equal to the pattern’s maximum height when measured from the breakdown point, i.e., 0.064–0.069.

ETH/USD bearish scenario

Technical signals suggest more downside prospects for Ether in the coming months, with a “bear flag” pattern projecting ETH’s price decline toward $1,700 in Q2, down about 40% from May 6’s price.

086de4f4 90f6 40ff 95e9 952659e49e0a
ETH/USD weekly price chart featuring ‘bear flag’ setup. Source: TradingView

Conversely, a rebound from the flag’s lower trendline could have Ether retest $4,000.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.